Posted by CMorrison on Sep 2nd, 2008
I was poking around my usual internet holes today, when I came upon an article wherein Sony Computer Entertainment’s worldwide boss Shuhei Yoshida stated that LittleBigPlanet will be “the biggest title for Sony in all markets this year.” You know, I’ve followed trends in the gaming industry for far longer than I care to admit, and based on what I know of traditional buying trends of the Playstation crowd, I just don’t see this game being the huge success that Sony says it will be. In fact, I’m gonna go on record and say right here that this game’s gonna be a far bigger bomb for the PS3 than many expect.
It’s not for fault of the game itself which is brilliant, but rather a few external factors. First off, who’s going to buy it? Casuals? Hardcore? Guys? Girls? Hardcores are a moot factor, I think; are people who typically have to change their underwear after the mere utterance of the the words ‘God of War’ or ‘Metal Gear Solid’ gonna buy into an arts-and-crafts community-based platformer? My money says no. This is the right game on the wrong system; it’d be much more at home on a Nintendo box, I feel. Now, what about casuals? This seems like the kind of game that would appeal to them, but how many casuals are going to sink $399 into a console just to play a single title? For as much as Sony expects LBP to move consoles, I have to ask, to whom?
Cutesy games like LittleBigPlanet aren’t unheard of on Sony’s consoles, but have arguably met with limited success. Katamari Damacy, one of the most high profile ‘cute’ titles on the PS2 has had an odd history with the PS brand; even at the height of KD’s popularity it sold through to a very small percentage of the PS2′s userbase. How exactly does Sony expect a game that is arguably creative but also an untested commodity to move systems off shelves when even MGS4, one of the most anticipated PS3 marquee titles of 2008, had a difficult time doing it for more than a few scant weeks?
I dunno…if it does well it’ll really change my perceptions on the state of the modern gaming climate, but I’m betting it’s not only me who will be disappointed come the end of fiscal 2008.
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I agree wholeheartedly. LBP might be unique, interesting, and ultimately a fun title, but it’s not a game that’ll make people who are still deciding on what console to buy get a PS3. I don’t see the hardcore crowd really sinking any significant time into the game, as the novelty of building your own levels will quickly grow stale for them. Face it, we core gamers actually like the structured environments of our games and overcoming them. Beating some level a kid in Nebraska built doesn’t sound nearly as impressive as tackling Mile High Club in Call of Duty 4 on Veteren. The latter carries weight in gaming circles — nobody will care about the former.
I applaud Sony for pushing what looks to be a creative game/level editor, but expecting it to be their saving grace? At this point, I don’t even know if any franchise can help the PS3 catch up to the Wii and 360.
“First off, who’s going to buy it? Casuals? Hardcore? Guys? Girls?”
Who’s going to buy it? Try me, for one. I can’t speak for anyone else. Which category do I fit in? I don’t even know. I just know this game looks fantastic and I like to buy fantastic games.
“For as much as Sony expects LBP to move consoles, I have to ask, to whom?”
Uh, again, that would be people like me. Bought my PS3 because of this game.
Look, I get where you’re trying to go with this blog, but is this industry really that predictable? No, it isn’t. I’ve been following games for a long time myself, and the fact is people who try to guess what is or isn’t going to sell are wrong more often then they’re right.
Now, with that said I’d just like to point something out that makes LittleBigPlanet different, IMHO, then Katamari…LBP is a game that Sony has sunk a lot of their own money into. This isn’t just some quirky little third party title that’s going to come out of nowhere and take us all by surprise.
Sony is going to make this game known about. There will be advertising. There will be bundles. And there is going to be a LOT of positive reviews and word of mouth to help back up all that marketing.
None of this guarantees anything of course, but certainly it should be factored in when considering the way things will play out.
Heck, the fact that in some ways this game has superseded Spore should be an indication that this game is going to be pretty big. But, of course, only time will tell for sure.
See, that’s just the thing though…you already BOUGHT a PS3 for this game. I don’t see this being the PS3′s savior this holiday season the same way Sony does; in fact, I’ll be surprised if it sells more than MGS4, which I’m convinced it won’t.
Just because a first-party title has lots of money dumped into it, has high visibility, and is critically acclaimed doesn’t mean it’ll be a success (see: Viva Pinata). My question isn’t whether or not LBP will be good (I’m predicting an 85-87% aggregate rating on Gamerankings.com), but rather how it is that Sony expects this game to be their system seller of the year when it clearly speaks to existing console owners, and is unlikely to attract new buyers. Hardcore gamers already have the PS3, and casual gamers aren’t paying $399 for one game, especially since the Wii more than likely already has their attention.
First of all, katamari damacy is a very niche game with limited replayability and doesn’t appeal to the general crowd. Not everyone understands the charm of rolling a giant ball of kitchen supplies. In contrast everyone knows how to play a classic platformer, everyone likes Mario.
A platformer game with unlimited replayability and which caters to the hardcore with an awesome level editor but at the same time pleases the young with cutesy graphics and the general crowd with easy controls and easy to understand game play. It certainly has the criteria for a success.
Secondly, everyone likes to play with their friends. That’s why games such as halo and cod4 (not to talk about wow and other mmos) are such a huge success. Perfectly put together multi player is always a win.
If a game is ever gonna push consoles, why wouldn’t it be a well made title with unlimited replayability, classic elements and multi player?
I already bought a ps3 for this title, so did a lot of other people i know. Hell, even my girlfriend who never plays games (except for Mario) is extatic about this game. And by the way, the hype on the Internet is huge for a reason.
I’ve been thinking about this, and I think, now, that LBP will probably give Sony a nice little boost in PS3 sales, at least for a short while. Soon after, though, the numbers will probably settle down into their current range. That’s nothing against LBP — I think it’ll be a great game and the creativity applied to it can only be good for the industry — but all blockbuster games tend to sell really well their first few weeks of release, and then slow down quite a bit. I still don’t think the hardcore crowd is going to eat it up — I know lots of gamers, and if their lack of disinterest is any indication, then that’s not a good sign.
If Sony really wants to move a long-lasting significant number of systems, they shouldn’t place their hopes in games, no matter how revolutionary they think they may be. The real motivator is price — while the $399 PS3 is certainly more appealing than $599 of times past, it still can’t compete with the $250 Wii or the newly appointed $199 XBox 360. Unfortunately, given the tremendous loss Sony is taking in console production, that’s just not possible. Dropping the price into the other system’s ranges may give them a numbers victory, it would be a catastrophic monetary loss. And when it comes to business, being number one doesn’t count for squat unless you’ve got money in the bank.
I think that’s the thing right there. LBP on a $299 console would likely have a much higher impact than I’m expecting it will. I guess I’m looking at LBP as the PS3′s Animal Crossing; it’ll have its die-hard, dedicated fans, but a system seller it wasn’t.
I mostly a hardcore gamer but I play casual games too, and I bought a PS3 basically just for LBP.